Sanna Marin, one of Finland’s most popular politicians, has been praised for helping her country navigate through the COVID-19 pandemic and for her decisive response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Her personal approval rating remains at 64% (69% among women). Yet, the centre-left-green coalition she was leading was voted out of power on Sunday in an election that was largely dominated by economic issues. In the final results, the conservative National Coalition emerged as the largest party with 20.8% vote share, while Ms. Marin’s Social Democrats ended up third (19.9%), after the anti-immigrant, populist Finns Party (20.1%). In Finland’s proportional representation system, the Social Democratic Party was expected to improve its tally to 43 seats from 40 in 2019, but Ms. Marin’s coalition partners, including the Centre Party, the Left Alliance and the Green League suffered major setbacks. Petteri Orpo, leader of the National Coalition, would be given the first chance to form the government. But the National Coalition, which is projected to have 48 seats, should show the support of at least 101 legislators in the 200-member Parliament to form the next government.
When Ms. Marin, 37, became Prime Minister in 2019, heading a coalition of five women-led parties, she was one of Europe’s youngest leaders. Her predecessor, Antti Rinne, a former trade unionist, was in office for only six months. Sceptics doubted Ms. Marin’s ability to keep the coalition together; her term was also rocked by the pandemic and the Ukraine invasion. But she made difficult decisions without losing the confidence of her allies. She stepped up borrowing and expanded social spending and investments to cushion an economy that was battered by the pandemic. For Finland, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine brought back grim memories of the ‘Winter War’, the 1939 Soviet invasion of Finland. Even though Finland lost territories, the country remained neutral throughout the Cold War. But the Ukraine war changed the strategic calculus of its leaders and Ms. Marin rallied public opinion on NATO membership. Yet, the economic costs of the Ukraine war partly led to her downfall. Amid surging inflation and high borrowing, Mr. Orpo attacked Ms. Marin’s handling of the economy, while the Populist Finns slammed the country’s immigration rules. The economic uncertainties, which were accentuated by the war, allowed both parties to make gains. Mr. Orpo, a seasoned politician, will now have to decide whether he should go with the Social Democrats or the populists. Either way, he will find it hard to find a balance between parties with different ideas while tackling defence and economic challenges.
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